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绿色资本开支:绿色通胀、回报与机会(英文)

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绿色资本开支:绿色通胀、回报与机会(英文)
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Note:The following is a redacted version of the original report published June 13,2022 [54 pgs].GoldmanEQUITY RESEARCH(June 27,2022 10:19AM EDTGREEN CAPEXGreenflation,Returns and OpportunityThe Russia-Ukraine war,inflation,recognition of the need for energy reliability and rising interest rates are driving debates around howprivate sector and public sector commitment to Green Capex will evolve and whether this raises or lowers the attractiveness of investmentopportunities towards achieving Net Zero,Infrastructure and Clean Water goals.We continue to see Green Capex as an underappreciatedsecular growth trend as investments rise towards Decarbonization,Infrastructure and Clean Water goals.Even as the incremental $2.8trillion in annual investment needed this decade vs.2016-20 is not fully on track:(a)capex R&D medium-term growth expectations haverisen over the past six months,both on an absolute basis and modestly relative to operating cash flow;and(b)governments appear morecommitted to increasing or stimulating Green Capex,particularly in Europe.We believe corporate returns and forward corporatereturns momentum will be a key driver of stock performance,and in this report we present screens that highlight sectors where we seefavorable,resilient and/or improving corporate returns levered to technologies needed in the Green Capex mosaic.Brian Singet CFAEnrico Chinello,Ph.D.Michael Hao Wu,CFADerek R.Bingham+1173431137GSSUSTAINEvan Tylenda,CFAMadeline MeyerKeebum K☒mBrendan CorbettEmma Jones+44207774-1153852-2978-1123+1212902-5513+141524974406129320-1041Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA inthe U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.Goldman SachsGS SUSTAINTable of ContentsPM SummaryGreen Capex needs remain robust:Updating what we believe is on track8Capex R&D expectations have moved higher in recent months,with modest increase in reinvestment rate12Implications to corporate returns:Mixed overall,but still favorable momentum in coming years among Green Capexsectors16Green Capex spare capacity has expanded,but more concentrated in oilgas21Economic growth and consumer impact are key risks25Innovation could accelerate in Clean Reliable Energy and Energy Efficiency as a result of greater deployment29Policy support leading to rise in long-term investment in Europe32Sectors that stand out post our latest update37Green Capex increases have not been appreciated in stock prices over the past six months41How GS SUSTAIN can help43Disclosure Appendix462
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