INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDWeathering Tomorrow:Climate Analogues andAdaptation Gaps inEuropeArmand Fouejieu,Shakill Hassan,Ruben Atoyan and Yiran ZhaIMF Working Papers describe research inprogress by the author(s)and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers areWORKING PAPERthose of the author(s)and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2024MAYFUND2024 Intemational Monetary FundWP/24/109IMF Working PaperEuropean DepartmentWeathering Tomorrow:Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in EuropePrepared by Armand Fouejieu,Shakill Hassan,Ruben Atoyan and Yiran ZhaAuthorized for distribution by Gavin GrayMay 2024IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:The European continent is warming at more than twice the global average.The human andeconomic costs of higher temperature and more frequent and extreme natural disasters-already substantial inEurope-are expected to increase further unless suitable adaptation strategies are implemented.This papershows that while Europe's overall vulnerability to climate risks is lower than other regions',the countries inCentral and Eastem Europe face greater human and economic costs from climate disasters compared to theiradvanced European peers,which are likely to further increase in the future.We use an ensemble of climatemodels to project future climates for each country in Europe,and identify the country whose present climatebest approximates this projection.We rely on this information on countries'representative future exposure toclimate risks to calibrate country-level macro analyses of natural disasters,and how investment in adaptativeinfrastructure can help mitigate these shocks.We find that adaptation infrastructure can significantly reduceoutput losses from natural disasters,mitigate medium-term economic scarring,and support sustainable long-term growth.However,we show that effective implementation of adaption strategies in EMEs/LICs is likely tobe constrained by limited domestic financial resources,weaker institutional quality,and may create policytrade-offs,if not accompanied by extemal support.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Fouejieu,Armand,Shakill Hassan,Ruben Atoyan,and Yiran Zha.2024.Weathering Tomorrow.Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe.IMF Working Paper 2024/109.Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund.JEL Classification Numbers:Q54,O4,H6.Macroeconomics of climate;adaptation;investment;public debt;Keywords:climate analoguesAuthor's E-Mail Address:AFouejieu@imf.org;SHassan@imf.org;RAtoyan@imf.orgYZha@imf.orgINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2